With preseason games underway, attention shifts to futures markets where early bets could yield either high returns or quick regret. Several NFL teams are generating buzz for outperforming expectations, while others seem priced on reputation alone.
Betting markets have listed win totals, playoff props, and multi-team specials that reveal which teams are getting too much, or not enough, respect.
Here’s a breakdown of teams that look over- or under-valued based on projections, last season’s results, and current win totals. Whether you’re looking for a sharp edge or avoiding public traps, now’s the time to strike.
Over-Valued Teams: Public Hype Meets Risk
Not all betting lines reflect reality. These teams may be riding inflated win totals driven more by reputation than roster strength or recent results.
Cincinnati Bengals – Win Total: 10.5
Cincinnati’s posted win total looks aggressive. Projections place them around 8.6 wins. That’s nearly two games below the line. After going 9-8 and missing the playoffs last year, optimism is tied to a healthy Joe Burrow. That said, with defensive turnover and a brutal division, this line may be too rich to trust.
Kansas City Chiefs – Win Total: 11.5
On popular sportsbooks like FanDuel Sportsbook, this team is priced as if nothing will go wrong. However, projections sit at 10.4, signaling a slight regression. While they’ve cleared 12 wins in six of the past seven years, changes at wide receiver and improvements across the AFC West make this line harder to justify.
Dallas Cowboys – Win Total: 8.5
Dallas disappointed in 2024, finishing 7-10. This year’s projection is only 7.3. Despite offensive potential, trust is eroding. After years of hype and underachievement, the Cowboys face a steep climb in a tougher NFC landscape.
Under-Valued Teams: Quiet Upside
Some teams are flying under the radar despite projections that suggest they could outperform market expectations and deliver solid betting value.
Jacksonville Jaguars – Win Total: 6.5
Jacksonville cratered last season at 4-13, but a bounce-back feels likely. Their projection of 7.4 reflects a roster ready to rebound. With Trevor Lawrence, upgraded weapons, and a soft division, this is a team that could clear the number with room to spare.
New England Patriots – Win Total: 7.5
The Patriots are trending up after consecutive 4-win seasons. Now projected at 8.8 wins, they could make a leap behind a revamped offense and new leadership. If the defense holds and the offense finds rhythm, they’ll be in the playoff hunt.
Washington Commanders – Win Total: 10.5
After a 12-5 finish last year, Washington sees its total jump. Projections dip to 8.2, but there’s reason for optimism. A strong defense, playmakers across the board, and rising confidence make this an intriguing team that may once again outperform expectations. For those eyeing value this fall, most NFL season betting guides suggest keeping an eye on Washington as a potential sleeper.
Futures Props With Value
Multi-team props and longshot futures can offer big returns when priced right. Here are a few high-upside combos and specials worth tracking before Week 1.
Patriots, Jaguars, Panthers Over Combo (+470)
This prop offers nearly 5-1 odds on three totals: New England over 7.5, Jacksonville over 7.5, and Carolina over 6.5. Panthers are projected right at the line, but the others have upside. One misstep kills the ticket, but with realistic paths to all three overs, the value holds.
Bills, Texans, Rams to Win Divisions (+700)
Buffalo looks secure in the AFC East. Houston is rising in the South. The Rams face a fight with San Francisco, but the risk-reward here is balanced. All three teams have been steady performers and should be in the mix come December.
Bengals and Commanders to Make Conference Title Games (+3000)
This is a true long shot, but not impossible. Cincinnati and Washington both have playoff potential. If either wins their division and gets hot, this could be the surprise bet of the year. At 30-1, it’s worth a shot for those targeting high upside.
Teams to Avoid
Even low win totals can be deceptive. These teams carry red flags, whether it’s instability, injuries, or public overconfidence, and could derail your futures bets.
Chicago Bears – Win Total: 8.5
Chicago is loaded with talent, but carries risk. They’re projected at 8.4 wins and face a tough schedule. Weather conditions and play style could limit production. Until their identity stabilizes, this total feels high.
Las Vegas Raiders – Win Total: 5.5
Vegas has a projection of 6.6, but the inconsistency is hard to overlook. Having only two winning seasons since 2002 doesn’t inspire confidence. Despite a low number, this team lacks stability, making it an unattractive futures play.
New Orleans Saints – Win Total: 5.5
The Saints haven’t hit an over in three seasons. While they’re projected for 7.6 wins, inconsistency on both sides of the ball persists. Betting on a turnaround now seems premature, especially with no clear plan at quarterback.
Watchlist Totals
Buffalo, Kansas City, Philadelphia, and Baltimore each have 11.5-win totals, but only Buffalo’s projection clears the mark. The Chiefs and Eagles hover closer to 10.4, suggesting the under has value if regression hits.
The 49ers are also notable, with a 10.5 total despite going 6-11 last season. Their projection is only 8.7, signaling another potential miss. Meanwhile, Green Bay, Seattle, and Tampa Bay all hover around 9.5 wins with matching projections. That is fair, but it’s lacking strong edges.
Smarter Bets Start Early
The 2025 NFL futures market rewards those who spot mispriced teams before the public catches up. Backing undervalued franchises like Jacksonville or New England now could yield profits later. Avoiding inflated teams like Cincinnati or Dallas may save headaches.
Injuries, matchups, and momentum will shift these lines over time, but the best edges are usually found before the season starts. Trust the data, watch the trends, and take your shots where the value’s real.
*Content reflects information and odds available as of 08/07/2025; subject to change. We do not guarantee the success of any betting strategy, tip, or advice. Users are solely responsible for their betting decisions.
